UFC Fight Night Rotterdam Predictions
Sit down and listen up to pro gambler Luca Fury’s UFC Fight Night Rotterdam predictions podcast for his breakdown of the main event. Luca gives his trademark in-depth analysis and shares his official Volkov vs Struve predictions.
Down the page you’ll find an in-depth audio breakdown on the Fury’s Fight Picks Podcast as well as a briefer written breakdown.
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Fury’s Fight Picks Podcast: UFC Fight Night Rotterdam Predictions
Sporting an industry leading documented ~70% pick accuracy, Luca’s insight provides useful information to fans, fantasy players and gamblers alike. So sit down and listen up to the proven best UFC predictions and breakdowns in the business on the Fury’s Fight Picks Podcast!
Below you’ll find embedded versions of the podcast from YouTube and SoundCloud, followed by a link to stream or download the MP3 version, and finally a link to the podcast pages in iTunes, Google Play and Stitcher Radio.
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Written Volkov vs Struve Breakdown
Struve has a record of 28 wins and eight losses, while Volkov has a record of 28 wins but only 6 losses. The betting odds are currently in Volkov’s favor, as he has shown himself to be the slight favorite at -25. Meanwhile, Struve is sitting at +105. Originally, Volkov opened up a little steeper at -175, but the line since fallen and remained steady in the books.
As I have mentioned in previous podcasts, the heavyweight division is just downright awful. It does not take much to crack the top 15, the top 10, or even the top five if you are any kind of decent fighter. For instance, Struve is currently number eight in the overall heavyweight division — not because he is that good, but just because the division is that bad. Nothing against him personally, but he has a very limited skillset. To his credit, he has shown improvements on utilizing his reach to his advantage — something he had not done at all in the past.
Additionally, Struve is not very fast or explosive, and only has a few knockouts under his belt. He has not shown much power, especially by heavyweight standards. Plus, he has poor striking defense and an even worse chin. He does have a slick submission game but very limited wrestling means he has no way to get the fight into that realm. So overall Struve is an opportunistic finisher with a disjointed skillset.
Meanwhile, Volkov is a less opportunistic fighter, a less dynamic finisher, but an overall more fundamentally sound fighter. He is similar in stature to Struve, standing just 5 inches shorter, which takes away some of Struve’s usual height 8-12 inch height advantage.
That is something that worries me here, since Volkov is technically a better striker and Struve is so used to having the large height and reach advantage. Even though Stefan does not utilize his reach well, it does give him extra leeway when he makes mistakes with his technique. On paper, it would appear that Volkov is the better wrestler than Struve, especially since the latter has proven to not be a particularly good offensive or defensive wrestler.
The overall dynamic of the fight is rather clear. Volkov is the better striker, but he is giving up height and reach (and might be giving up a slight power advantage). Meanwhile, Struve likely has the upper hand if this fight were to hit the ground but doesn’t have a good way of getting it there.
So with all of that being said, Volkov should win — on paper. But seeing as Struve is a fairly unpredictable fighter, with erratic technique and opportunistic finishing abilities, I would not be shocked if he came out on top in yet another fight where he had the inferior overall game. Ultimately my official prediction will be Volkov by TKO.
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