UFC 218 Predictions
Sit down and listen up to pro gambler Luca Fury’s UFC 218 predictions podcast for his breakdown of the main event. Luca gives his trademark in-depth analysis and shares his official Holloway vs Aldo 2 predictions for the main event.
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Fury’s Fight Picks Podcast: UFC 218 Predictions
Sporting an industry leading documented ~70% pick accuracy, Luca’s insight provides useful information to fans, fantasy players and gamblers alike. So sit down and listen up to the proven best UFC predictions and breakdowns in the business on the Fury’s Fight Picks Podcast!
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Holloway vs Aldo 2 Preview Writeup
Today, I want to break down the UFC 218 main event, which features a rematch between Max Holloway and Jose Aldo. This is a short-notice program change, as Frankie Edgar, the original opponent for Holloway, got injured and had to drop out approximately three weeks ago.
Although Aldo may not have gotten much time to prepare, I do believe this is going to be a pretty interesting rematch — mostly because Holloway has improved so much in just the short time that has elapsed since their last matchup.
But I digress. Let us dive straight into my breakdown and analysis of this fight.
As for the betting odds, we have Holloway coming forth as a very large favorite at minus 320. Aldo, on the other hand, comes in at plus 260.
In order to fairly break down this upcoming match, I feel it is important to touch on their first fight.
Firstly, the factors every fan believed would impact that matchup proved to be null and void — namely, Holloway’s height and reach, as well as Aldo’s poor cardio.
This is mostly because Holloway really does not fight like a typical tall fighter — meaning he keeps his strikes close and does not really utilize his reach. Plus, he really did not have the tools necessary to leverage his height advantage at the time.
On the other side, Aldo was believed to have poor cardio. However, that is just not true. The only time he ever gassed out was when he fought Mark Hominick while battling the flu — something that can have a negative impact on even the strongest cardio.
That is why the first match was such a dead-even pick ’em in the books. However, we swiftly learned what Holloway was truly capable of — and watched Aldo throw away his shot by not utilizing his effective light kick tactic. This is likely why many fans — myself included — are choosing to place their bets on Holloway.
However, the skills that were exhibited during their first fight are not the only reason why I am betting on Holloway to come out on top. It is mainly because of how short notice this match was for Aldo.
After all, he has always been a little more injury-prone and is not necessarily the healthiest fighter. Plus, he is betting on some sort of “new strategy” to aid him in winning the fight.
While this may work out for a while, I prefer to see consistency in fighters. I do not like to hear that they are drastically changing their approach, mindset, or overall method of fighting so late in the game.
However, what concerns me the most is that Aldo has regressed not so much on an athletic level, but in regards to his chin. Up until the Chad Mendes fight, he had a fantastic chin — never rocked, never dropped, nothing. Then, suddenly, he got knocked out by McGregor and his chin softened up and never truly recovered.
So with all that said, I have to favor Holloway even though I can see a path to Aldo getting the upset if he fights the perfect fight.
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