MMA Live Betting – Betting Strategy Guide
Expert advice on how to live bet on MMA fight. Winning strategies, pointers and angles.
Betting Strategy Guide: MMA Live Betting Tips
This is an entry in a long list of betting strategy guides found here on Fury’s Fight Picks. Whether you are about to take the plunge into the sports betting world for the first time, or are looking for tips to gain an edge, these guides provide expert advice that will help improve your result. You can find all entries in this series here.
Live betting is the most underrated and perhaps the easiest method of earning money by betting on mixed martial arts. For starters, the books I use are Bookmaker.eu and 5Dimes.eu, though I use Bookmaker far more. That is because they offer in-round betting, meaning you can bet on the fights in real time, not just in-between rounds. Further, Bookmaker offers a wider selection of live bets, such as totals, point handicaps, and props. 5Dimes, on the other hand, only offers live betting after the end of each round, which really limits your choices. They also usually only offer bets on the money line for each fighter. If you see something you like during the middle of a round and want to bet on that fighter you can only do so at Bookmaker.
The toughest aspects of live betting are predicting what is going to happen, how the lines will move, and getting in your bet before the line changes. Bookmaker changes their lines quickly — even a small takedown will cause them to freeze the line and then raise it in favor of the fighter that got the takedown. They tend to overreact over small things like that, which provides the bettor with great opportunities. You can get a fighter that you think is going to win at a cheap price in a situation like that. Especially if you know the fighter that got taken down is good at scrambling back to their feet and is overall the better fighter.
You should go into each fight with a plan in mind. Make sure you known each fighter’s tendencies before the fight starts. That way you will be able to spot if they are fighting unusually. Perhaps they are injured or just not mentally with it for that fight. Another thing to look out for is when fighters come in with odd gameplans. Perhaps they are keeping their hands too low or they are not utilizing good footwork. The most obvious thing to look out for is when a fighter tires. They drop their hands, their reaction time is much slower, and they are more prone to getting knocked out. Even durable fighters with iron chins are far easier to knockout when fatigued.
Another thing to look out for is where the fights take place. UFC cards in Brazil and other foreign countries tend to have controversial decisions. You can use this to your advantage. You will often times see books heavily favor who they feel is winning the bout while not factoring in hometown favoritism. These spots present a great opportunity to bet on a fighter at big plus money when the realistic chance of them winning the decision is closer to a toss-up. Even in bouts without potential hometown favoritism, the books often overvalue one fighter in competitive decisions. Considering how MMA judges can be brutally inept at scoring fights that are even remotely competitive, this is another spot that can prove highly profitable.
Continuing on the theme of capitalizing on judging errors, one of my favorite selections to live bet are points handicaps, which are offered by Bookmaker. They are offered usually in the third round and at the end of the fight before the scores are read. They tend to offer -7.5 handicaps at big plus money in fights where the winner is clear. However, sometimes the first round or the second round in these fights is close and all you would need is one judge to side with the other fighter for you to cash. For example, I live bet Josh Burkman +7.5 points against Hector Lombard at +596. While most viewers scored the fight 30-27 for Lombard, which would mean the +7.5 would lose, the first round was pretty competitive. It only takes one judge to giving Burkman that round in order for the +7.5 to hit, and considering how often poor scores are turned in by MMA judges, this seemed far more possible than the +596 odds indicated. Sure enough, the scores were 30-27, 30-27 and 29-28 for Lombard, meaning the +7.5 point handicap on Burkman was a winner at huge odds!
As I alluded to earlier, you have to be decisive when making a live bet. The lines move very quickly, there is no time to waste. Try to get a feeling about what you are going to do when live betting becomes available or when the lines unlock. Bookmaker typically freezes the lines when something substantial, such as a knockdown, happens. So you must always have a quick trigger finger.
Another live betting spot to hit is totals. If a fight is fast paced and one, or both, fighters are landing consistent offense, I like to take a chance on a finish occurring so I’ll take the under. Or if the fight is slow paced and uneventful, taking the over 2.5 total can be a great angle. Pre-fight research comes into play in both these situations as well. Factors such as a fighters chin and cardio can greatly affect the length of the fights.
Live betting is definitely a skill that is acquired over time. However, it is something that can be learned quickly if you learn the ins and outs that I have described. Remember, the best thing you can do to win at live betting is to do your pre-fight research! If you know the fighters well you will be able to quickly spot good opportunities. While the angles I’ve mentioned here makes sense in theory, I have more importantly proven their success in practice as well.
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About Luca Fury
Luca Fury was heavily involved in the betting game for multiple years before eventually turning into a full time professional sports bettor at the age of 22. Several years later, Luca’s dedication and experience is the reason he has the longest running and most profitable MMA betting tips record in the industry. Betting professionally and running Fury’s Fight Picks are Luca’s only jobs, which means he is able to commit all of his time and resources to producing winning betting tips. Whether you’re looking for proper MMA betting advice, or want to tail winning UFC bets without doing any of the work yourself, Luca Fury and Fury’s Fight Picks are the proven number one source.
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