Betting Strategy Guide: MMA Live Betting Tips
This is an entry in a long list of betting strategy guides found here on Fury’s Fight Picks. Whether you are about to take the plunge into the sports betting world for the first time, or are looking for tips to gain an edge, these guides provide expert advice that will help improve your result. You can find all entries in this series here.
Always be Prepared
You should go into each fight with a plan in mind. Make sure you known each fighter’s tendencies before the fight starts. That way you will be able to spot if they are fighting unusually. Perhaps they are injured or just not mentally with it for that fight. Another thing to look out for is when fighters come in with odd gameplans. Perhaps they are keeping their hands too low or they are not utilizing good footwork. The most obvious thing to look out for is when a fighter tires. They drop their hands, their reaction time is much slower, and they are more prone to getting knocked out. Even durable fighters with iron chins are far easier to knockout when fatigued.
You have to be decisive when making a live bet. The lines move very quickly, there is no time to waste. Try to get a feeling about what you are going to do when live betting becomes available or when the lines unlock. Books that offer live betting during the rounds, rather than only between rounds, typically freeze the lines when something substantial occurs, such as a knockdown. So you must always have a quick trigger finger.
Know the Judges
Another thing to look out for is where the fights take place. UFC cards in Brazil and other foreign countries tend to have controversial decisions. You can use this to your advantage. You will often times see books heavily favor who they feel is winning the bout while not factoring in hometown favoritism. These spots present a great opportunity to bet on a fighter at big plus money when the realistic chance of them winning the decision is closer to a toss-up. Even in bouts without potential hometown favoritism, the books often overvalue one fighter in competitive decisions. Considering how MMA judges can be brutally inept at scoring fights that are even remotely competitive, this is another spot that can prove highly profitable.
Continuing on the theme of capitalizing on judging errors, one of my favorite selections to live bet are points handicaps, which are offered by by some books. They are offered usually in the third round and at the end of the fight before the scores are read. They tend to offer -7.5 handicaps at big plus money in fights where the winner is clear. However, sometimes the first round or the second round in these fights is close and all you would need is one judge to side with the other fighter for you to cash.
Another live betting spot to hit is totals. If a fight is fast paced and one, or both, fighters are landing consistent offense, I like to take a chance on a finish occurring so I’ll take the under. Or if the fight is slow paced and uneventful, taking the over 2.5 total can be a great angle. Pre-fight research comes into play in both these situations as well. Factors such as a fighters chin and cardio can greatly affect the length of the fights.
All in all, live betting is definitely a skill that is acquired over time. However, it is something that can be learned quickly if you learn the ins and outs that I have described. Remember, the best thing you can do to win at live betting is to do your pre-fight research! If you know the fighters well you will be able to quickly spot good opportunities. While the angles I’ve mentioned here makes sense in theory, I have more importantly proven their success in practice as well.
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